a thought experiment
Does the human brain
know which Pokémon cards
are valuable?
Each card in my Collectr portfolio was fed through TRIBE v2, Meta's foundation model that predicts what a human brain would do when looking at an image. Then I asked whether the predicted brain activation correlates with what the card sells for.
Real signal: brain-predicted price beats 100% of shuffled controls (R²=0.09). Strongest single region: occipital_L (r=+0.44, p=0.000).
213cards analyzed
14brain regions
+0.09held-out R²
100thvs shuffled controls
Where does the brain fire most when shown my collection?
Each region's color is its absolute correlation between predicted activation and log(price). Brighter = stronger relationship with what cards cost.
Top correlations
The 10 brain regions whose predicted activation best tracks (or anti-tracks) log(price) across the collection.
Activation vs price
Each dot is a card. X = activation in occipital_L (the strongest single ROI). Y = log of market price. Dashed line is the OLS fit.
The brain's bets
For every card we ranked it two ways: market rank (1 = most expensive in the collection) and brain rank (1 = strongest predicted brain response).
Cards the brain ranks much higher than the market are its hidden gems.
Cards the market ranks much higher than the brain are its skeptics.
Implied price = the actual market price at the brain's ranked position — a more honest projection than the log-regression's dollar output (which compresses everything toward the mean).
Of 213 priced cards, 61 land in "brain likes it more" and 68 in "market likes it more" (|rank diff| ≥ 30).
HIDDEN GEMS
brain ranks these higher than the market does
Harpie's Pet Baby Dragon
$1.14
implied $75.80
+6549%
Clawitzer (JP)
$1.00
implied $51.25
+5025%
Beedrill
$1.48
implied $82.78
+5493%
Blaziken (JP)
$3.52
implied $163.33
+4546%
Delphox
$2.11
implied $66.25
+3040%
MARKET KNOWS BEST
market ranks these higher than the brain does
Snorlax
$119.56
implied $0.66
-99%
Fire Energy
$7.72
implied $0.12
-98%
Fighting Energy
$5.80
implied $0.12
-98%
Ditto
$37.28
implied $0.51
-99%
Mew
$171.09
implied $1.00
-99%
Every card, ranked by brain-vs-market disagreement
Each card shows its market rank (1 = most expensive of 213) and how the brain ranks it. The corner badge is the rank delta — positive (green) means the brain likes this card more than the market does.
+185
Duralume, Vaalmonican Heathen Hallow
$0.22
implied $427.52
market #187 · brain #2
+194227%
+182
Landorus
$0.14
implied $48.49
market #208 · brain #26
+34536%
+174
Ragnaraika Armored Lizard
$0.12
implied $35.79
market #209 · brain #35
+29725%
+158
Hippowdon
$0.12
implied $19.94
market #211 · brain #53
+16517%
+153
Mega Heracross ex
$0.35
implied $87.49
market #168 · brain #15
+24897%
+142
Salazzle ex
$0.37
implied $49.86
market #167 · brain #25
+13376%
+136
Saggi the Dark Clown
$0.57
implied $65.62
market #155 · brain #19
+11412%
+135
Talonflame
$0.15
implied $9.55
market #207 · brain #72
+6267%
-134
Snorlax
$119.56
implied $0.66
market #12 · brain #146
-99%
-129
Fire Energy
$7.72
implied $0.12
market #80 · brain #209
-98%
-127
Fighting Energy
$5.80
implied $0.12
market #84 · brain #211
-98%
-126
Ditto
$37.28
implied $0.51
market #34 · brain #160
-99%
+125
Reuniclus
$0.24
implied $19.54
market #179 · brain #54
+8042%
-123
Mew
$171.09
implied $1.00
market #7 · brain #130
-99%
+121
Rank-Up-Magic Admiration of the Thousands
$0.31
implied $20.17
market #173 · brain #52
+6406%
+119
Aurorus
$0.17
implied $5.60
market #204 · brain #85
+3194%
-118
Charizard ex
$427.52
implied $1.37
market #2 · brain #120
-100%
+117
Winged Dragon, Guardian of the Fortress #1
$0.64
implied $41.00
market #149 · brain #32
+6306%
-113
Rayquaza
$65.62
implied $0.95
market #19 · brain #132
-99%
+112
Tyrantrum
$0.26
implied $12.08
market #175 · brain #63
+4546%
+110
Vivillon
$0.21
implied $5.86
market #193 · brain #83
+2690%
+109
Gallade
$0.61
implied $25.48
market #152 · brain #43
+4077%
+109
Twin-Headed Fire Dragon
$0.18
implied $3.97
market #202 · brain #93
+2106%
-107
Smoochum
$11.57
implied $0.31
market #66 · brain #173
-97%
-105
Unown (Y)
$31.91
implied $0.70
market #39 · brain #144
-98%
+105
Harpie's Pet Baby Dragon
$1.14
implied $75.80
market #122 · brain #17
+6549%
+104
Clawitzer (JP)
$1.00
implied $51.25
market #128 · brain #24
+5025%
+103
Druddigon
$0.65
implied $24.36
market #148 · brain #45
+3648%
+99
Beedrill
$1.48
implied $82.78
market #115 · brain #16
+5493%
+95
Talonflame
$0.90
implied $31.91
market #134 · brain #39
+3446%
+94
Machoke
$0.63
implied $18.07
market #151 · brain #57
+2768%
-93
Togepi (Delta Species)
$5.34
implied $0.24
market #86 · brain #179
-96%
-92
Latios (Delta Species)
$106.66
implied $2.05
market #13 · brain #105
-98%
-91
Special Delivery Charizard
$224.66
implied $3.81
market #5 · brain #96
-98%
-90
Heracross (Delta Species)
$35.62
implied $1.03
market #36 · brain #126
-97%
+89
Blaziken (JP)
$3.52
implied $163.33
market #98 · brain #9
+4546%
-88
Celebi
$44.48
implied $1.43
market #28 · brain #116
-97%
+87
Mega Zygarde ex
$0.70
implied $17.84
market #145 · brain #58
+2449%
+86
Delphox
$2.11
implied $66.25
market #104 · brain #18
+3040%
-85
Dratini (Delta Species)
$2.39
implied $0.22
market #102 · brain #187
-91%
-84
Bulbasaur (95)
$44.78
implied $1.78
market #27 · brain #111
-96%
-84
Turtwig
$3.68
implied $0.24
market #97 · brain #181
-93%
+84
Naveen
$0.24
implied $3.68
market #181 · brain #97
+1433%
-83
Charizard ex
$49.86
implied $1.90
market #25 · brain #108
-96%
-81
Mew EX (Full Art)
$181.70
implied $4.87
market #6 · brain #87
-97%
-81
Groudon (05)
$42.59
implied $1.57
market #31 · brain #112
-96%
+81
Mega Starmie ex
$0.95
implied $20.46
market #132 · brain #51
+2054%
-80
Charizard
$147.23
implied $4.39
market #10 · brain #90
-97%
-80
Vaporeon
$22.61
implied $1.00
market #49 · brain #129
-96%
-79
Dual Ball
$1.38
implied $0.21
market #118 · brain #197
-85%
+77
Naveen
$3.06
implied $53.49
market #100 · brain #23
+1648%
-77
Dark Electrode
$1.78
implied $0.22
market #111 · brain #188
-88%
-75
Lt. Surge's Pikachu
$4.31
implied $0.37
market #91 · brain #166
-91%
-75
Full Flame
$1.02
implied $0.18
market #127 · brain #202
-82%
-74
Rapidash
$1.90
implied $0.24
market #108 · brain #182
-87%
-73
Charizard
$413.42
implied $8.74
market #3 · brain #76
-98%
-73
Dark Tyranitar (20)
$19.17
implied $1.00
market #55 · brain #128
-95%
-72
Wailord
$53.49
implied $3.83
market #23 · brain #95
-93%
-72
Magnezone
$10.10
implied $0.71
market #71 · brain #143
-93%
-71
Latias (Delta Species)
$13.37
implied $0.96
market #60 · brain #131
-93%
-71
Piplup
$10.80
implied $0.80
market #69 · brain #140
-93%
+71
Chien-Pao
$0.16
implied $0.89
market #206 · brain #135
+456%
-70
Kingdra (Delta Species)
$54.55
implied $4.31
market #21 · brain #91
-92%
-69
Regice
$4.62
implied $0.53
market #88 · brain #157
-89%
+69
Salamence
$4.39
implied $54.55
market #90 · brain #21
+1143%
-69
Altaria
$1.88
implied $0.25
market #109 · brain #178
-87%
-69
Grass Energy
$0.70
implied $0.08
market #144 · brain #213
-89%
-68
Ralts
$2.13
implied $0.32
market #103 · brain #171
-85%
+68
Fletchling
$0.16
implied $0.84
market #205 · brain #137
+425%
-67
Salamence ex
$171.03
implied $8.78
market #8 · brain #75
-95%
+63
Kyurem EX
$8.90
implied $147.23
market #73 · brain #10
+1554%
+63
Dragon Treasure
$0.42
implied $2.39
market #165 · brain #102
+469%
+62
Red-Eyes Black Dragon (Starlight Rare)
$11.76
implied $413.42
market #65 · brain #3
+3415%
+61
Lance's Charizard V
$9.55
implied $145.19
market #72 · brain #11
+1420%
-61
Moltres
$4.06
implied $0.58
market #92 · brain #153
-86%
+61
Arcanine
$3.83
implied $37.28
market #95 · brain #34
+873%
-60
Cradily (Delta Species)
$19.54
implied $1.50
market #54 · brain #114
-92%
+60
Grumpig
$0.74
implied $6.21
market #141 · brain #81
+739%
-58
Dark Charizard
$145.19
implied $10.80
market #11 · brain #69
-93%
-58
Raichu
$1.57
implied $0.34
market #112 · brain #170
-78%
-57
Milotic (Delta Species)
$93.06
implied $10.10
market #14 · brain #71
-89%
-57
Aron
$8.37
implied $0.85
market #79 · brain #136
-90%
+57
Drapion
$0.22
implied $0.90
market #190 · brain #133
+309%
+56
Trevenant
$4.87
implied $42.59
market #87 · brain #31
+775%
-56
Blaine's Charmander
$2.05
implied $0.50
market #105 · brain #161
-76%
-56
Cyndaquil (Delta Species)
$1.37
implied $0.26
market #119 · brain #175
-81%
-55
Dark Dragonite
$87.49
implied $10.72
market #15 · brain #70
-88%
+54
Gengar
$0.85
implied $5.93
market #136 · brain #82
+598%
-54
Poke Pad
$0.57
implied $0.12
market #156 · brain #210
-79%
-53
Swablu
$2.83
implied $0.57
market #101 · brain #154
-80%
-53
Meteor Falls
$0.65
implied $0.19
market #147 · brain #200
-71%
+52
Zoroark
$1.00
implied $8.46
market #130 · brain #78
+746%
+52
Furfrou
$0.21
implied $0.71
market #194 · brain #142
+238%
+51
Togekiss
$0.22
implied $0.84
market #189 · brain #138
+282%
+50
Espurr
$0.21
implied $0.65
market #197 · brain #147
+210%
+48
Charizard
$1.93
implied $14.72
market #107 · brain #59
+663%
+48
Gurdurr
$0.53
implied $1.88
market #157 · brain #109
+255%
-47
Yveltal EX (144 Full Art)
$75.80
implied $12.04
market #17 · brain #64
-84%
-46
Lightning Energy
$0.37
implied $0.11
market #166 · brain #212
-70%
-45
Misty's Tentacruel
$24.55
implied $4.53
market #44 · brain #89
-82%
-45
Luxio
$1.00
implied $0.26
market #129 · brain #174
-74%
+45
Gumshoos
$0.17
implied $0.53
market #203 · brain #158
+212%
+43
Umbreon
$1.12
implied $7.72
market #123 · brain #80
+589%
-43
Master Ball
$0.50
implied $0.17
market #161 · brain #204
-66%
-43
Night Pokemon Center
$0.43
implied $0.15
market #164 · brain #207
-65%
-42
Arcanine
$1.84
implied $0.61
market #110 · brain #152
-67%
+41
Charizard ex (JP)
$23.64
implied $224.66
market #46 · brain #5
+851%
-41
Swalot
$6.21
implied $1.14
market #81 · brain #122
-82%
+41
Fletchinder
$0.12
implied $0.34
market #210 · brain #169
+183%
-40
Krabby
$13.24
implied $2.83
market #61 · brain #101
-79%
+40
Tyrunt - 070
$4.53
implied $22.61
market #89 · brain #49
+399%
+40
Skitty
$0.84
implied $3.52
market #138 · brain #98
+319%
+39
Deoxys (Attack Forme)
$5.86
implied $24.55
market #83 · brain #44
+319%
-39
Poliwhirl
$1.95
implied $0.70
market #106 · brain #145
-64%
+38
Team Rocket's Weezing
$8.74
implied $33.01
market #76 · brain #38
+278%
+37
Skiddo
$0.57
implied $1.41
market #154 · brain #117
+147%
+37
Tyrunt
$0.22
implied $0.63
market #188 · brain #151
+186%
+37
Dewgong
$0.21
implied $0.51
market #196 · brain #159
+143%
-36
Blue-Eyes White Dragon
$949.84
implied $33.71
market #1 · brain #37
-96%
-35
Balloon Berry
$0.32
implied $0.16
market #171 · brain #206
-50%
+34
Blue-Eyes Shining Dragon
$35.79
implied $949.84
market #35 · brain #1
+2554%
-34
Crobat (Delta Species)
$17.84
implied $4.06
market #58 · brain #92
-77%
-34
Espurr
$5.60
implied $1.37
market #85 · brain #119
-76%
-34
Champion's Room
$0.26
implied $0.14
market #174 · brain #208
-46%
-32
Dragonite
$18.21
implied $4.62
market #56 · brain #88
-75%
+31
Squirtle
$1.41
implied $5.34
market #117 · brain #86
+279%
-30
Miltank
$8.68
implied $1.93
market #77 · brain #107
-78%
+30
Shellder
$0.90
implied $2.13
market #133 · brain #103
+137%
+30
Magcargo
$0.80
implied $1.84
market #140 · brain #110
+130%
+29
M Blastoise EX
$26.89
implied $106.66
market #42 · brain #13
+297%
-29
Sharpedo
$1.28
implied $0.63
market #121 · brain #150
-51%
-29
Diglett
$0.84
implied $0.35
market #139 · brain #168
-58%
-29
Dunsparce
$0.71
implied $0.32
market #143 · brain #172
-55%
+28
Charizard VMAX
$41.00
implied $240.17
market #32 · brain #4
+486%
-28
Delcatty
$8.46
implied $1.95
market #78 · brain #106
-77%
-28
Holon Legacy
$0.53
implied $0.23
market #158 · brain #186
-57%
+27
Entei
$27.06
implied $93.06
market #41 · brain #14
+244%
+27
Tri-Horned Dragon
$11.49
implied $31.27
market #67 · brain #40
+172%
-26
Rayquaza (Triple Blisters)
$11.10
implied $3.93
market #68 · brain #94
-65%
-26
Growing Grass Energy
$0.25
implied $0.17
market #177 · brain #203
-32%
+25
Yanma
$3.97
implied $11.10
market #93 · brain #68
+180%
-23
Rayquaza (Delta Species)
$240.17
implied $44.78
market #4 · brain #27
-81%
+23
Charizard ex
$42.87
implied $171.09
market #30 · brain #7
+299%
+23
Shiftry
$20.17
implied $43.77
market #52 · brain #29
+117%
+23
Swampert
$3.81
implied $8.90
market #96 · brain #73
+134%
-23
Scrafty
$1.03
implied $0.64
market #126 · brain #149
-38%
+23
Clamperl
$0.48
implied $0.84
market #162 · brain #139
+75%
-22
Ludicolo (10)
$25.48
implied $11.76
market #43 · brain #65
-54%
+22
Raticate
$0.23
implied $0.43
market #186 · brain #164
+87%
-21
Dark Celebi
$43.77
implied $21.98
market #29 · brain #50
-50%
-21
Serperior
$3.93
implied $1.48
market #94 · brain #115
-62%
-21
Lumiose City
$0.25
implied $0.20
market #178 · brain #199
-20%
+20
Sprigatito ex
$1.07
implied $2.11
market #124 · brain #104
+97%
-19
Growlithe
$3.46
implied $1.38
market #99 · brain #118
-60%
+19
Corsola
$0.71
implied $1.12
market #142 · brain #123
+58%
-19
Pupitar
$0.32
implied $0.21
market #172 · brain #191
-34%
+19
Spritzee
$0.24
implied $0.45
market #182 · brain #163
+88%
-18
Salamence (Delta Species)
$66.25
implied $35.62
market #18 · brain #36
-46%
-18
Nidoking
$51.25
implied $26.89
market #24 · brain #42
-48%
+18
Aggron
$22.75
implied $42.87
market #48 · brain #30
+88%
-18
Dewgong
$1.43
implied $0.90
market #116 · brain #134
-37%
+18
Rattata
$0.19
implied $0.24
market #201 · brain #183
+26%
-17
Dragonair
$5.93
implied $3.46
market #82 · brain #99
-42%
-17
Horsea
$0.96
implied $0.65
market #131 · brain #148
-32%
-17
Ponyta
$0.45
implied $0.24
market #163 · brain #180
-47%
+17
Poke Ball
$0.08
implied $0.21
market #213 · brain #196
+163%
+16
Charizard V
$54.13
implied $181.70
market #22 · brain #6
+236%
-16
Rocket's Admin.
$21.98
implied $11.57
market #50 · brain #66
-47%
-16
Radiant Charizard
$20.46
implied $11.49
market #51 · brain #67
-44%
-16
Radiant Charizard
$12.08
implied $8.37
market #63 · brain #79
-31%
+16
Tangela
$0.84
implied $1.28
market #137 · brain #121
+52%
+14
Charizard GX
$10.72
implied $18.21
market #70 · brain #56
+70%
+14
Cradily
$8.78
implied $13.24
market #75 · brain #61
+51%
+14
Probopass
$1.50
implied $3.06
market #114 · brain #100
+104%
-13
Reshiram & Charizard GX
$37.89
implied $23.64
market #33 · brain #46
-38%
-13
Blastoise
$12.04
implied $8.68
market #64 · brain #77
-28%
-13
Rowlet
$0.24
implied $0.21
market #180 · brain #193
-12%
+12
Nidoqueen (Delta Species)
$24.36
implied $37.89
market #45 · brain #33
+56%
+12
Pidgeot
$14.72
implied $23.18
market #59 · brain #47
+57%
-12
Torterra
$12.91
implied $8.83
market #62 · brain #74
-32%
+11
Delcatty
$0.89
implied $1.07
market #135 · brain #124
+20%
+11
Potion
$0.11
implied $0.19
market #212 · brain #201
+73%
+10
Blue-Eyes Toon Dragon
$33.01
implied $44.48
market #38 · brain #28
+35%
-10
Cinccino
$8.83
implied $5.80
market #74 · brain #84
-34%
-10
Litleo (19)
$0.66
implied $0.57
market #146 · brain #156
-14%
+9
Weedle
$0.63
implied $0.74
market #150 · brain #141
+17%
+9
Serperior
$0.26
implied $0.37
market #176 · brain #167
+42%
+8
Blue-Eyes White Dragon (Silver)
$59.47
implied $119.56
market #20 · brain #12
+101%
-8
Clefairy
$31.27
implied $22.75
market #40 · brain #48
-27%
-8
Armaldo ex (Non Holo)
$23.18
implied $19.17
market #47 · brain #55
-17%
-7
Raikou
$19.94
implied $13.37
market #53 · brain #60
-33%
-7
Bellsprout
$0.34
implied $0.26
market #169 · brain #176
-24%
-7
Seedot
$0.34
implied $0.25
market #170 · brain #177
-26%
-6
Charizard VSTAR
$82.78
implied $54.13
market #16 · brain #22
-35%
+6
Charizard
$48.49
implied $59.47
market #26 · brain #20
+23%
-6
Nosepass
$0.20
implied $0.16
market #199 · brain #205
-20%
-5
Sunflora
$18.07
implied $12.91
market #57 · brain #62
-29%
-5
Vulpix
$1.37
implied $1.06
market #120 · brain #125
-23%
-5
Numel
$0.51
implied $0.42
market #160 · brain #165
-18%
+5
Snorlax
$0.19
implied $0.21
market #200 · brain #195
+11%
-4
Charizard EX
$33.71
implied $27.06
market #37 · brain #41
-20%
-4
Snivy
$0.23
implied $0.22
market #185 · brain #189
-4%
-3
Remoraid
$0.51
implied $0.48
market #159 · brain #162
-6%
-2
Torchic (66)
$1.06
implied $1.02
market #125 · brain #127
-4%
-2
Riolu
$0.58
implied $0.57
market #153 · brain #155
-2%
+2
Amaura
$0.21
implied $0.22
market #192 · brain #190
+5%
+1
Charizard ex
$163.33
implied $171.03
market #9 · brain #8
+5%
-1
Probopass
$0.24
implied $0.23
market #183 · brain #184
-4%
-1
Antique Sail Fossil
$0.23
implied $0.23
market #184 · brain #185
+0%
-1
Salandit
$0.21
implied $0.21
market #191 · brain #192
+0%
+1
Shinx
$0.21
implied $0.21
market #195 · brain #194
+0%
+0
Lickitung
$1.56
implied $1.56
market #113 · brain #113
+0%
+0
Potion
$0.20
implied $0.20
market #198 · brain #198
+0%
Methodology & caveats
Pipeline. Card catalog images were scraped from a personal Collectr portfolio (catalog product images, not user photos). Each image was wrapped as a 2-second silent MP4 — TRIBE v2's public API takes video, not images directly — and passed to TribeModel.predict. The output is a per-second prediction of the BOLD signal across the ~20,484 vertices of the fsaverage5 cortical mesh. We averaged across timesteps, then partitioned vertices into 14 anatomical regions (occipital / parietal / temporal / sensorimotor / frontal / prefrontal / cingulate × L/R) using each vertex's 3D coordinate, and took the mean activation inside each region.
Statistics. Per-region Pearson r against log(market_price), then a Ridge regression from the 14-dim ROI vector onto log(price), with leave-one-out cross-validation. As a control, we permuted the price column 200 times and re-ran the same LOO regression to get a null distribution of held-out R². The headline number is where the real R² falls in that distribution.
- Correlation isn't causation. Even if predicted neural activation tracks price, the brain doesn't set Pokémon prices — TCG market mechanics do. The honest framing is: visual features that drive predicted brain activation also happen to be visual features that the secondary market values.
- Small N. A few dozen cards is too few to make confident claims. The shuffle control protects against false positives, but real signal could still be a quirk of one collection.
- TRIBE v2 was not trained on Pokémon cards — it was trained on naturalistic media (videos, podcasts, images). Its brain predictions on a static card image are out-of-distribution.
- Static-image artifact. Wrapping a still image as a 2-second silent video means the audio and language extractors see nothing. Only the V-JEPA2 visual stream contributes.
Built with TRIBE v2 (Meta, CC BY-NC). Pipeline source: see the tribev2 demo repo. This page contains a single ~30-line vanilla JS snippet for sort reordering — no framework, no tracking, no analytics.